Kenya’s food security crisis is set to worsen in the coming months, with an estimated 2.8 million people projected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity between April and June 2025, according to the latest IPC Short Rains Assessment (SRA).
This marks a significant increase from the 2.2 million people already classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above in the February to March 2025 period.
The report highlights that approximately 292,000 individuals will be in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), with no counties currently classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).
However, the situation remains precarious, particularly in five arid counties—Turkana, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, and Marsabit—where food insecurity levels are most severe.
The deteriorating food security outlook is attributed to poor rainfall performance, rising food prices, and ongoing conflicts over resources, including human-wildlife interactions and competition for grazing land.
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Compared to the same period last year, the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or worse has increased by 10 per cent, reflecting the growing strain on households in Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs).
Malnutrition crisis worsening
Alongside food insecurity, malnutrition rates remain alarmingly high, with 800,202 children aged 6 to 59 months classified as acutely malnourished and in need of treatment.
The report further indicates that 120,732 pregnant or lactating women require urgent nutrition interventions.
Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) cases stand at 198,166, while moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) cases total 602,036.
Despite a slight improvement compared to February 2024, when malnutrition cases stood at 847,900, the figures mark a deterioration from July 2024, when 760,500 children were affected.
The decline in nutritional status is driven by a high disease burden, inadequate childcare and feeding practices, limited access to health services, and poor water and sanitation conditions.
The report warns that the USA executive order on USAID funding has led to widespread budget cuts among partner organisations at global, regional, and local levels, further affecting food security, health, nutrition, and WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) services.
Without urgent interventions, acute malnutrition rates could see a sharp rise in the coming months.
Drivers of the crisis
Several factors have contributed to the worsening food insecurity and malnutrition situation in Kenya’s ASAL counties. The report identifies key drivers, including:
Poor rainfall and drought conditions: The short rains from October to December 2024 were below average, with some areas experiencing delayed rainfall onset and early cessation, leading to crop failure and inadequate pasture regeneration.
Flooding: Flash floods affected multiple livelihood clusters, damaging infrastructure, reducing access to markets, and forcing pastoralists to move their livestock further in search of grazing land.
Resource-based conflicts: Clashes over pasture and water have escalated, particularly in pastoral areas, leading to loss of livestock and displacement of communities.
Economic pressures: High food prices, particularly for staple commodities like maize, have reduced household purchasing power, while livestock prices have declined due to poor body conditions and distress sales.
Urgent interventions required
The report calls for immediate and sustained multi-sectoral interventions to prevent further deterioration of food security and nutrition levels in Kenya.
Recommendations include scaling up humanitarian assistance, improving water and sanitation services, strengthening disease surveillance, and ensuring the timely provision of agricultural inputs.
Without adequate interventions, the food security crisis is expected to deepen, with millions facing worsening hunger and malnutrition in the months ahead.
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