The Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition presidential candidate Raila Odinga has maintained a narrow lead at 46.7 per cent rating over his Kenya Kwanza Alliance competitor William Ruto who follows closely at 44.4 per cent.
This is according to the latest opinion poll conducted by Trends and Insights Africa (TIFA) released on Thursday.
The poll rated Roots Party presidential candidate George Wajackoyah at 1.8 per cent and Agano Party presidential candidate at 0.1 per cent.
According to TIFA, the presence of Wajackoyah and Mwaure has significantly narrowed the chances of either Raila or Ruto clinching the seat in the first round.
“The presence of two other candidates, Prof. George Wajakoyah of the Roots Party of Kenya (now at (1.8%) and David Mwaure Waihiga of the Agano Party (0.1%) at least raises the possibility that neither Odinga nor Ruto will be able to secure an outright, first-round win, though combined their total figure would probably have to at least double to bring this about,” TIFA said.
The same study also revealed Raila-Karua ticked received most voting-intention support in Nyanza, Coast, Lower Eastern, Nairobi, South Rift and Western Kenya, While Ruto-Gachagua ticket enjoy most support in Central Rift and Mount Kenya.
Wajackoyah-Wamae ticket attracts most of their support from the coastal and Lower Eastern region while Waihiga-Mutua ticked realised minimal support in Coast, Nyanza and the Mount Kenya region.
“Largely following the pattern of support for the party alliances/coalitions, Odinga-Karua receive most voting-intention support in Nyanza, but also enjoy plurality support in Coast, Lower Eastern, Nairobi, South Rift and Western. For Ruto-Gachagua, they enjoy most support in Central Rift and Mt. Kenya,” TIFA said.
“However minimal nationally, Wajackoyah-Wamae attract most of their support in Coast and Lower Eastern, while Waihiga-Mutua only registered very slight support in Coast, Nyanza and Mt. Kenya.”
The expressed voting intentions for Odinga have changed across Kenya and he has gained in all nine zones from South Rift +5 per cent, Nyanza +13 per cent, Western +13 per cent, Lower Eastern +12 per cent and Central Rift -5 per cent.
On the other hand, the support for Ruto since TIFA’s previous study has increased in six of the nine zones namely Rift Valley +20 per cent and Mount Kenya +13 per cent.
Ruto has also suffered losses in the Northern zone -24 per cent and Wester zone -11 per cent.
The trend analysis over the past two years revealed Raila’s rating increased from a 15 per cent rating in 2020 to the current 47 per cent while Ruto’s popularity maintained between 36 per cent in 2020 and 44 per cent in 2022.